Trade Series Analysis Glossary
Avg Win / Series - The average profit for the winning series. As an example, if a strategy has 4 series of 5 consecutive profitable trades, then the program calculates the average profit of all trades in each series.
Avg Loss Next Trade - The average loss of the trade following the series. To decide that a series is over, we must see the strategy make a trade with an opposite outcome. A winning series ends after the next losing trade, while a losing series ends after the next winning trade.
Avg Loss / Series - The average loss for the losing series. As an example, if a strategy has 4 series of 5 consecutive trades, then the software is calculating the average loss of all trades in each series.
Avg Win Next Trade - The average win of the trade following the series. In order to have a series conclude, the strategy must have a trade in the opposite direction. A winning series ends after the next losing trade, while a losing series ends after the next winning trade.
Confidence Limits - The Z score is then converted into a confidence limit, sometimes also called a degree of certainty. The area under the curve of the Normal Probability Function at 1 standard deviation on either side of the mean equals 68% of the total area under the curve. So we take our Z score and convert it to a confidence limit, the relationship being that the Z score is a number of standard deviations from the mean and the confidence limit is the percentage of area under the curve occupied at so many standard deviations.
Strategy ME - By the same token, you are better off not to trade unless there is absolutely overwhelming evidence that the market system you are contemplating trading will be profitable-that is, unless you fully expect the market system in question to have a positive mathematical expectation when you trade it realtime. Mathematical expectation is the amount you expect to make or lose, on average, each bet.
Z-score - The runs test will tell us if our system has more (or fewer) streaks of consecutive wins and losses than a random distribution. The runs test is essentially a matter of obtaining the Z scores for the win and loss streaks of a systems trades. A Z score is how many standard deviations you are away from the mean of a distribution. Thus, a Z score of 2.00 is 2.00 standard deviations away from the mean (the expectation of a random distribution of streaks of wins and losses).